China has recently played an active mediation role in regional conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, raising questions about whether U.S. influence is beginning to decline.
Only last week, after Saudi Arabia and Iran ended their seven-year-long rivalry thanks to Chinese mediation, it was rumored that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Moscow as soon as next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is rumored to propose a mediation package to try to defuse the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
The war has lasted more than a year since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, causing thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people. The international community has strongly condemned and sanctioned Russia’s aggression, but it has not been able to stop Russia’s military expansion. At this juncture of crisis, has China, one of Russia’s largest trading partners and formal allies, been able to successfully defuse this crisis?
First, we need to understand the dilemma China finds itself in during this war. On the one hand, as a country that has established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, China does not want to lose this important diplomatic partner and regional ally. In particular, China needs to maintain a high degree of coherence and cooperation with Russia in the face of the pressure and intervention exerted on it by the United States and other Western countries on issues related to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang. In addition, there is extensive and in-depth mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Russia in the fields of trade, energy, and science and technology. Therefore, confrontation or betrayal with Russia over Ukraine is not in line with China’s national interests and diplomatic principles.
On the other hand, as a responsible power and one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, China cannot ignore the fact that Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence have been seriously violated. China has always advocated the settlement of international disputes through political means such as dialogue, consultation and negotiation, and opposes any form of forceful intervention or hegemonic behavior. Therefore, it is also inconsistent with China’s international image and moral stance to be on the same page or indifferent with the U.S. and other countries on the Ukraine issue.
To sum up, China is in a dilemma in this war: it cannot offend Russia nor violate its own principles; it has to preserve its own interests and not give up its mediation strategy of interests.
What mediation strategy will Xi Jinping propose to Pudin when he visits Moscow soon?
According to the “Chinese position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis” issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, China’s mediation strategy may contain the following key points.
- Respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, and oppose any form of interference or threat of force.
- Call on both sides to immediately cease fire, withdraw heavy weapons, reduce humanitarian disasters and protect the safety of civilians.
- Support political dialogue and diplomatic consultations within the framework of the UN Security Council, and abide by established consensus such as the Minsk agreements.
- Emphasize the integrity and effectiveness of the European security architecture and oppose the deployment of new nuclear weapons or anti-nuclear missile systems in Europe.
- Establish a multilateral cooperation platform that includes all stakeholders and explore cooperation projects involving energy, trade, investment and other areas.
- In recent years, China has actively participated in multilateral cooperation and regional security and played a mediating role in a number of hotspot issues, while its diplomatic strategy has shifted from keeping a low profile and remaining silent in the past to being proactive in speaking out and defending its interests, known as “war wolf diplomacy.
How do China’s international mediations affect the U.S. position in global affairs?
This may depend on different contexts and interests. In some cases, Chinese mediation may be compatible or compatible with U.S. objectives, such as promoting regional stability and reducing violent conflict; in some cases, Chinese mediation may contradict or compete with U.S. objectives, such as weakening U.S. alliances or influence; in some cases, Chinese mediation may have no apparent or direct impact on the United States.
Image Credit: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0
